Yield first. The building comes second.
Commercial real estate market outlook for 2026
This page summarizes the main forces shaping U.S. commercial real estate in 2026, using published research from named firms and industry groups. We date each item so you can see how fresh it is. The overall picture is a recovery in transaction volume, financing that is elevated but stabilizing, and a wide split between sectors and submarkets. Readers who want detail on any item can follow the source named in each section.
What to read first
Volume is recovering, supply is thin, and local labor markets decide where leasing holds. The figures below come from the named sources in each section, not from a single national average.
2026 outlook, dated by source
Capital markets
CBRE capital markets outlook for 2026
The CBRE U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 for capital markets was published on December 2, 2025, and updated in 2026. It forecasts a 16% increase in 2026 commercial real estate investment volume. The outlook uses long-term yields around 4% as part of its rate backdrop, which helps explain why buyers are returning with more caution than in past cycles.
It also breaks out expected gains by sector, including multifamily, retail, office, and industrial. We read that sector split as the most useful part, because a single volume figure hides where the activity is. A buyer comparing sectors should ask where capital is moving, where tenants are signing, and where prices have already adjusted.
Midyear check
CBRE midyear update confirms the volume story
A CBRE press release published on August 4, 2026, reported that CBRE still expected investment-sales volume to increase 16% for the year. It also reported that construction completions are hovering near 10-year lows. Lower completions matter because they limit new supply, which can support occupancy and rent in sectors where demand holds.
The release noted expected gains across multifamily, retail, office, and industrial and logistics. Read together, the year-end and midyear items describe a market that is functioning again, not one that is booming without limits.
Leasing demand
MetLife on leasing demand and local labor markets
The MetLife 2026 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook, published in 2026, says leasing demand is increasingly tied to where high-value employment and wage gains are concentrated. That finding pushes the reader away from national averages and toward specific labor markets.
A metro with expanding professional employment will support office and retail leasing differently than a metro with flat hiring. MetLife uses a sector-by-sector lens, which suits how tenants actually lease space. For underwriting, the lesson is simple: check the local job market before you check the national headline.
Demand follows jobs
Place before averages
Office and retail leasing respond to professional employment in the metro. Industrial leasing responds to logistics employment and the routes goods actually travel. The same national trend can produce different local results.
Field note: when two metros show the same headline vacancy, the one with growing high-value jobs has the stronger leasing case.
Hover or focus this plate to reveal the note, or read it as part of the section above.
Policy and inflation
Cushman and Wakefield on policy and inflation
Cushman & Wakefield published its U.S. Midterms 2026 report on November 4, 2026, focused on policy impact on commercial real estate. It uses a baseline of real GDP growing a little over 2.0% in both 2026 and 2027. It expects CPI to average about 3.4% in 2026 before easing in 2027.
The report connects policy and macro conditions to occupancy trends across property types. We use that connection as a reminder that vacancy is not only a property issue. It is also an economy issue, and the two meet in each lease.
2.0%
Real GDP baseline in 2026 and 2027, described as a little over 2.0% in each year.
3.4%
Expected average CPI in 2026, before easing in 2027 in the report baseline.
Nov 4, 2026
Publication date for the Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Midterms 2026 report.
Cross-check
JLL outlook across capital and leasing
The JLL U.S. Real Estate Outlook 2026, published in 2026, covers U.S. property market conditions across capital and leasing. It is useful for discussing office, industrial, retail, and multifamily demand within one frame. Brokerage research of this kind tends to track where capital is moving and where tenants are signing.
Differences between sectors are often more instructive than the overall tone. We read JLL alongside CBRE and MetLife, because agreement across firms strengthens a conclusion and disagreement flags a question.
Listed real estate
Morningstar on listed real estate and REITs
Listed real estate is a large investment market, yet most commercial property is still held privately, which is where our screening work applies.
155
REIT companies in 2026
28%
‘Other’ category share, from 6%
10%
Share of U.S. commercial property owned by REITs
Morningstar published its U.S. Traded REITs Market Insights & Trends 2026 on October 13, 2026. It notes that REITs have grown from about 20 companies in the 1970s to 155 in 2026. It also notes that the ‘other’ category, including tower and data center REITs, has risen to 28% of the market from 6%.
At the same time, REITs own only about 10% of U.S. commercial properties. That last figure is the useful context. Listed real estate is a large investment market, yet most commercial property is still held privately, which is where our screening work applies.
Industrial demand
Prologis and the industrial demand story
Prologis is one of the largest industrial REITs globally, focused on logistics and distribution facilities. It is commonly used as a barometer for warehouse and logistics real estate. Its position aligns with the industrial demand story in U.S. CRE research, where reshoring and logistics needs support leasing.
Industrial demand after a supply boom depends on where new space was built and whether tenants need it. We track Prologis as a reference point, not as a promise about any individual warehouse property.
Execution into 2027
ULI and PwC on execution risk into 2027
Urban Land Institute and PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027 was referenced in November 2026 coverage. It notes that capital is available and debt markets are functioning. It also says repricing can create attractive entry points, while warning that higher borrowing costs and submarket variation raise the execution bar.
That pairing captures the current mood well. Capital is present, but it is selective, and selectivity rewards preparation. Entry points exist where prices have adjusted, yet execution still depends on local demand and sound underwriting.
Capital available
Selective
Debt markets
Functioning
Entry points
Where repriced
Execution bar
Higher
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